IS BAJA READY?

Those that study patterns of small earthquakes to help predict the next significant earthquake may want to take a look at Northern Baja California. The area in question is located about 45-50 south of the California border in central Baja California.

I have noted an area where five quakes have occurred over the last few weeks. I have compiled a 25-year list of earthquakes that have occurred within a 15 mile (26.5 km) radius of where these quakes have occurred. (NOTE: All quakes referenced in this report are of 3.0 or greater)

This area has a rich seismic history, but has been very quiet in recent years. Prior to these recent quakes, a 3.0 was recorded on December 13th of 2004.

This area has seen four earthquakes of 5.0 or higher in the last 25 years. The most recent was a 5.0 on 12/3/91. The other three were all 5.1 and they occurred on 8/31/88, 1/25/88 and 5/8/85. Three of the four had at least one notable foreshock.

The 5.0 of 12/3/91 had two quakes within about six weeks of the mainshock, but calling these foreshocks might be a stretch based on this data.

The 5.1 of 8/31/88 had a 3.3 foreshock four days prior and a two other small 3's within a few weeks.

The 5.1 of 1/25/88 saw seventeen foreshocks. Activity increased in August of 1987 and four significant foreshocks occurred within the month prior to the mainshock. Before August, the last quake was back at the end of January.

On May 8, 1985 there was a 3.3 foreshock followed by a 5.1 mainshock about two hours later.

Although having 4 quakes in this area in a short period of time is not unprecedented, it is something to keep an eye on. Larger quakes here tend to have foreshocks.

HERE is the complete list of quakes that was used for this report.